National Weather Service (2024)

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --845FXUS61 KGYX 261014AFDGYXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Gray ME614 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024.SYNOPSIS...Any light showers in the north will end early this morning.Today will be dry and continued very warm as high pressurebuilds in briefly. Low pressure will bring another round ofshowers and perhaps a few thunderstorms tonight with less warmand drier air arriving for the remainder of the work week.Another front arrives this weekend with another chance forshowers and thunderstorms. High pressure builds in for earlynext week.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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610 AM Update...Only change to the going forecast was to addedslight chance PoPs for this afternoon based on latest CAMs andlatest radar loops across upstate NY.Previously...A weak short wave trough with attendant WAA advection continuesto move across our forecast area as of 0630z this morning.Forcing is weak, but there are some light showers, mainly thenorthern half of the CWA, that will move out early this morning.The departure of the short wave trough this morning will yieldat least partly sunny skies in its wake along with descendingair and very warm to hot conditions. The lack of forcing forascent and decreasing dewpoint values this afternoon shouldinhibit thunderstorm development and therefore leaving most ofthe region dry. However, there still remains an outside shot ofa brief shower or thunderstorm this afternoon on the coastalplain where SFC convergence will be present along stalled SFCtrough.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...Another short wave trough will approach quickly this eveningwith many CAMs showing a thunderstorm complex moving eastwardacross PA and the southern tier of NY late in the afternoon,which is forecast to continue eastward along or near stalled SFCtrough. The vast majority of CAMs keep any strong thunderstormsto our south though the evening hours as the stalled boundaryshould remain just south of NH. However, we do expectcategorical rains overnight with a slight chance of thunder asthe approaching short wave trough amplifies and moves onthrough. Can`t rule out a few thunderstorms with heavy downpoursand a one or two instances of gusty winds. Overall, the trendin consensus QPF over the last several runs has been down, as itappears that the convective complex will largely remain to thesouth of our CWA.Any showers move offshore by daybreak Thursday. This will allowfor a dry and cooler day.&&.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...Overview...High pressure builds across New England through Friday, thenshifts east on Saturday. Another cold front crosses through NewEngland Saturday night, with the upper level crossing through onSunday. A large high pressure center builds in from the westearly next week.Details...Conditions dry out by Friday as high pressure noses in from thesouthwest. Highs look seasonable in the 70s to low 80s duringthe day, with lows on the cooler side in the dry airmass, withovernight lows in the 40s and 50s. Moisture begins to return andtemps moderate going into Saturday as the high moves offshoreand winds turn more southwesterly.Showers and storms approach western areas by late in the day onSaturday as the front approaches. Saturday night looks mostlywet and thundery as a deepening area of low pressure movesalong the passing front. The upper level low behind the frontlikely lingers into Sunday, enhancing the chance for afternoonshowers and storms. A much more expansive high pressure centerbuilds in from the west, ushering in a cooler and drier airmassfor early next week.&&.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Short Term...VFR is expected through the sunset today but afast moving, but potent low will quickly cross south of the thearea tonight bringing terminals to IFR by around midnightthrough early Thursday morning. VFR returns for the bulk ofThursday.Long Term...VFR returns for Friday and Saturday, with nighttimevalley fog possible Thursday night and Friday night. Showersand some storms are likely Saturday night with MVFR to IFRceilings likely. Conditions improve on Sunday, but briefafternoon showers and MVFR ceilings are possible Sundayafternoon. Conditions then improve for Sunday night and earlynext week, with mainly VFR conditions.&&.MARINE...Short Term...A few SCA gusts and seas around 5 feet are possibletoday but inversion should keep widespread and long-lived SCAconditions at bay.Long Term...A cold front clears the waters on Thursday, withhigh pressure building in for Friday. A cold front approaches onSaturday, with SCA conditions possible in fresheningsouthwesterly winds ahead of the front. High pressure thenbuilds across the waters early next week.&&.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...ME...None.NH...None.MARINE...None.&&$$SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...EksterSHORT TERM...EksterLONG TERM...Clair/EksterAVIATION...MARINE...